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6 Calls Increase for New Measures and Better Data 5 A PRB Population Bulletin, “Rethinking Age and Aging,” explored this measure in depth. The POADR and OADR are available for side-by-side comparison for all major countries on the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ (UNDESA) website, Profiles of Ageing 2017. Using the POADR’s moving threshold for defining old age means fewer people are classified as old in many countries, and the ratio of old people to working-age people increases much more slowly over the next few decades, Scherbov showed. Sanderson and Scherbov created a life expectancy-based measure, called the prospective old age dependency ratio (POADR), that calculates the number of people in age groups with remaining life expectancies of 15 years or fewer, divided by the number of adults (ages 20 and older) in age groups with life expectancies greater than 15 years.īy contrast, the commonly used old-age dependency ratio (OADR) is based solely on chronological age and is usually the ratio of people ages 65 and older to those in the traditional working ages (15 to 64). New measures could better capture the dynamics of population aging and eventually become the basis for policy changes that make public pensions such as Social Security more sustainable. Source: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Aging Demographic Data Sheet 2018 (Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, 2018). Share of the Population With a Remaining Life Expectancy of 15 Years or Less Top-10 Countries With the Oldest Populations Vary by Measurement Used Share of the Population Ages 65 and Older, 2015

It assumes people become dependent and cease being economically active on their 65th birthdays. In their view, using age 65 as the threshold for old age overstates the impact of aging on societies. Our measures of aging are static, but old age is changing, Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) argued at an international conference earlier this year and in their book, Prospective Longevity: A New Vision of Population Aging. What If “Old” Isn’t Measured by a Chronological Age?

Japan and Italy don’t even make the top 10 (see table). 1 But redefine “old” as the share of the population expected to live 15 years or less and Bulgaria, Latvia, and Ukraine top the list. Japan, Italy, and Germany top the list of the world’s oldest countries-if the data are based on the share of the population ages 65 and older.